Census Bureau updates world population projections–elderly pop will triple by 2050
The world’s 65-and-older population is projected to triple bymidcentury, from 516 million in 2009 to 1.53 billion in 2050, accordingto the U.S. Census Bureau. In contrast, the population under 15 isexpected to increase by only 6 percent during the same period, from1.83 billion to 1.93 billion.
In the United States,the population 65 and older will more than double by 2050, rising from39 million today to 89 million. While children are projected to stilloutnumber the older population worldwide in 2050, the under 15population in the United States is expected to fall below the olderpopulation by that date, increasing from 62 million today to 85 million.
Thesefigures come from the world population estimates and projectionsreleased today through the Census Bureau’s International Data Base.This latest update includes projections by age, including people 100and older, for 227 countries and areas.
Less than 8percent of the world’s population is 65 and older. By 2030, the world’spopulation 65 and older is expected to reach 12 percent, and by 2050,that share is expected to grow to 16 percent.
“This shiftin the age structure of the world’s population poses challenges tosociety, families, businesses, health care providers and policymakersto meet the needs of aging individuals,” said Wan He, demographer inthe Census Bureau’s Population Division.
From 2009 to2050, the world’s 85 and older population is projected to increase morethan fivefold, from 40 million to 219 million. Because women generallylive longer than men, they account for slightly more than half of theolder population and represent nearly two-thirds of the 85 and olderpopulation.
Europe likely will continue to be the oldestregion in the world: by 2050, 29 percent of its total population isprojected to be 65 and older. On the other hand, sub-Saharan Africa isexpected to remain the youngest region as a result of relatively higherfertility and, in some nations, the impact of HIV/AIDS. Only 5 percentof Africa’s population is projected to be 65 and older in 2050.
Countriesexperiencing relatively rapid declines in fertility combined withlonger life spans will face increasingly older populations. Thesecountries will see the highest growth rates in their older populationsover the next 40 years.
There are four countries with 20percent or more of their population 65 and older: Germany, Italy, Japanand Monaco. By 2030, 55 countries are expected to have at leastone-in-five of their total population in this age category; by 2050,the number of countries could rise to more than 100.
AlthoughChina and India are the world’s most populous countries, their olderpopulations do not represent large percentages of their totalpopulations today. However, these countries do have the largest numberof older people — 109 million and 62 million, respectively. Bothcountries are projected to undergo more rapid aging, and by 2050, willhave about 350 million and 240 million people 65 and older,respectively.
The International Data Baseoffers a variety of demographic indicators for countries and areas ofthe world with populations of 5,000 or more. It provides information onpopulation size and growth, age and sex composition, mortality,fertility and net migration.
Source: US Census Bureau, http://www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/releases/archives/international_population/013882.html
Related data: Older Population in the US, http://www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/releases/archives/aging_population/013862.html
Population by Age and Sex, http://www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/releases/archives/aging_population/013863.html