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Elder Law Prof Blog
Katherine C. Pearson, Editor, and a Member of the Law Professor Blogs Network on LexBlog.com

Census Bureau releases new report on global aging

By Elder Law Prof Blog

The average age of the world’s population is increasing at anunprecedented rate. The number of people worldwide 65 and older isestimated at 506 million as of midyear 2008; by 2040, that number willhit 1.3 billion. Thus, in just over 30 years, the proportion of olderpeople will double from 7 percent to 14 percent of the total worldpopulation, according to a new report, An Aging World: 2008 [PDF].

     Thereport examines the demographic and socioeconomic trends accompanyingthis phenomenon. It was commissioned by the National Institute on Aging(NIA), part of the National Institutes of Health and produced by theU.S. Census Bureau.

     “The world’s population of peopleover age 65 is growing rapidly, and with it will come a number ofchallenges and opportunities,” said NIA Director Dr. Richard J. Hodes.“NIA and our partners at the Census Bureau are committed to providingthe best data possible so that we can better understand the course ofpopulation aging and its implications.”

     An AgingWorld: 2008 examines nine international population trends identified in2007 by the NIA and the U.S. Department of State (“Why Population Aging Matters: A Global Perspective”).The report also contains detailed information on life expectancy,health, disability, gender balance, marital status, livingarrangements, education and literacy, labor force participation andretirement and pensions among older people around the world.

     “Agingis affecting every country in every part of the world,” said RichardSuzman, director of NIA’s Division of Behavioral and Social Research.“While there are important differences between developed and developingcountries, global aging is changing the social and economic nature ofthe planet and presenting difficult challenges. The fact that, within10 years, for the first time in human history there will be more people65 and older than children under 5 in the world underlines the extentof this change.”

     Highlights of the report include:

  • Whiledeveloped nations have relatively high proportions of people 65 andolder, the most rapid increases in the older population are in thedeveloping world. The current rate of growth of the older population indeveloping countries is more than double that in developed countries,and is also double that of the total world population.
  • Asof 2008, 62 percent (313 million) of the world’s people 65 and olderlived in developing countries. By 2040, today’s developing countriesare likely to be home to more than 1 billion people 65 and over, 76percent of the projected world total.
  • Theoldest old, people 80 and older, are the fastest growing portion of thetotal population in many countries. Globally, the oldest old populationis projected to increase 233 percent between 2008 and 2040, comparedwith 160 percent for the population 65 and over and 33 percent for thetotal population of all ages.
  • The65-and-older population in China and India alone numbered 166 millionin 2008, nearly one-third of the world’s total. Issues related topopulation aging in the world’s two most populous nations will beaccentuated in the coming decades as the absolute number climbs to 551million in 2040 (329 million in China and 222 million in India).
  • Childlessnessamong European and U.S. women 65 and older in 2005 ranged from lessthan 8 percent in the Czech Republic to 15 percent in Austria andItaly. Twenty percent of women 40–44 in the United States in 2006 hadno biologic children. These data raise questions about the provision ofcare when this cohort reaches advanced ages.
  • Olderpeople provide support to as well as receive support from theirchildren. In countries with well-established pension and socialsecurity programs, many older adults provide shelter and financialassistance to their adult children and grandchildren. Older people indeveloping countries, although less likely to provide financial help tochildren, make substantial contributions to family well-being throughsuch activities as household maintenance and grandchild care.

     Thereport was prepared by Kevin Kinsella and Wan He of the InternationalPrograms Center in the Population Division of the Census Bureau.Research for and production of the report were supported under aninteragency agreement with the NIA’s Behavioral and Social ResearchDivision.

     The NIA leads the federal effort supportingand conducting research on aging and the medical, social and behavioralissues of older people. For more information on research and aging, goto <www.nia.nih.gov>.

     TheNIH — the nation’s medical research agency — includes 27 institutes andcenters and is a component of the U.S. Department of Health and HumanServices. It is the primary federal agency for conducting andsupporting basic, clinical and translational medical research, and itinvestigates the causes, treatments, and cures for both common and rarediseases. For more information about NIH and its programs, visit <http://www.nih.gov>.