A Different Housing Bubble? Elders Selling Homes.

Kudos again to my friend and colleague, Professor Mark Bauer (current chair of the AALS Aging & Law section, btw) for sending me this article, The Great Senior Sell-Off Could Cause the Next Housing Crisis.  The article appeared in The Atlantic’s CityLab, and although the article was published in 2013, I think it is still important to read (if you didn’t when it was first published) because it predicts the busting of another housing “bubble” starting in 2020, just 6 years from now.

The article opens with looking at the various names of animals being swallowed by the python (that is, the Boomers and the American population). (As an aside, the article lists a number of animals–I’d only heard of the pig, but now I know we Boomers might also be compared to a bunny (cute) or “a really big rat” (ugh)). But I digress.

The focus of the article is on what will happen when the Boomers reach a certain age where they decide to sell their homes…and hope there are buyers galore for them. A researcher quoted in the article indicates that in certain larger metro areas, there should be buyers, but in less populous areas, not so much.  He describes what he calls “the “great senior sell-off” …. sometime later this decade … [that] he predicts that it could cause our next real housing crisis.”

Changing demographics will also affect the housing market and demand will not be in sync with supply as housing preferences change with age and demographics.  There is something of a bleak housing future ahead for many elders, according to the expert, who predicts “there will be two classes of seniors in America: those “aging in place” voluntarily, and those “aging in place” involuntarily because they can’t sell their homes.”  His concerns about aging in place are best summarized by how a person’s abilities change once s/he gets to an advanced age and becomes unable to do basic upkeep or maintenance yet the housing market will tumble, leaving some only the choice of abandoning their homes.