Older and Poorer? Local Governments Need to Plan

Governing ran an article last month, An Older, Poorer America Is Coming, The article opens

The percentage of older Americans living below the federal poverty line has decreased by two-thirds since 1966. That year, according to data from the Pew Research Center, 28.5 percent of Americans age 65 and over were poor. By 2012, that number had declined to just 9.1 percent.

But we may be at the end of that happy trendline. I think that over the next five to 10 years we will see a dramatic reversal in the economic fortunes of millions of our oldest residents. That has profound implications for governments at all levels.

Discussing how we fund retirement (the 3-legged stool), the author notes the changes in pension plans, the low amounts saved and the higher amount of debt. This is not particularly new to those of us who teach elder law. But consider the following from the author:

You can put off retirement, and many are. The labor force participation rate for those 65 and older increased from 12.4 percent in 1994 to 18.6 percent in 2014. But you can’t put off aging. The collapse of incomes for this group when they no can longer work is going be a double hit for government, decreasing the taxes they pay just as they need more public services.

The author calls on local governments to be planning for this scenario: “the consequences of dramatic increases in the older poor, including looking at affordable housing, transit and health care.” Noting the potential power of the ballot box, the author concludes “Given the size of the baby boom population, a return to the poverty rates that existed among aging Americans before the War on Poverty would result in more than 8 million newly impoverished seniors. They’re not going to sit quietly on a street corner with a tin cup.”