Social Security & Medicare Trustees 2016 Reports Released

It’s that time of the year! The Social Security Trustees and the Medicare Trustees released their 2016 reports.  There is always a lot of information in these reports, but what everyone wants to know is when these programs are “running out” of money. According to the Social Security Trustees 2016 report, the SSDI and Retirement funds (combined) are “good” through 2034, although individually the SSDI fund isn’t as robust, with its solvency at risk in 2023. 

Here is an excerpt from the summary:

The Bipartisan Budget Act of 2015 was projected to postpone the depletion of Social Security Disability Insurance (DI) Trust Fund by six years, to 2022 from 2016, largely by temporarily reallocating a portion of the payroll tax rate from the Old Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund to the DI Trust Fund. The effect of updated programmatic, demographic and economic data extends the DI Trust Fund reserve depletion date by an additional year, to the third quarter of 2023, in this year’s report. While legislation is needed to address all of Social Security’s financial imbalances, the need remains most pressing with respect to the program’s disability insurance component.

The OASI and DI trust funds are by law separate entities. However, to summarize overall Social Security finances, the Trustees have traditionally emphasized the financial status of the hypothetical combined trust funds for OASI and DI. The combined funds satisfy the Trustees’ test of short-range (ten-year) close actuarial balance. The Trustees project that the combined fund asset reserves at the beginning of each year will exceed that year’s projected cost through 2028. However, the funds fail the test of long-range close actuarial balance.

The Trustees project that the combined trust funds will be depleted in 2034, the same year projected in last year’s report….

As far as Medicare, the Trustees report solvency through 2028. Here are two excerpts from the Trustees Report (in Section II.A.)

Short-Range Results

The estimated depletion date for the HI trust fund is 2028, 2 years earlier than in last year’s report. As in past years, the Trustees have determined that the fund is not adequately financed over the next 10 years. HI tax income and expenditures are projected to be lower than last year’s estimates, mostly due to lower CPI assumptions. The impact on expenditures is mitigated by lower productivity increases.

Looking at the separate programs Part A (HI) and Part B (SMI) the picture for SMI is a bit better

The SMI trust fund is adequately financed over the next 10 years and beyond because premium income and general revenue income for Parts B and D are reset each year to cover expected costs and ensure a reserve for Part B contingencies. A hold-harmless provision restricts Part B premium increases for most beneficiaries in 2016; however, the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2015 requires a transfer of funds from the general fund to cover the premium income that is lost in 2016 as a result of the provision. In 2017 there may be a substantial increase in the Part B premium rate for some beneficiaries. (See sections II.F and III.C for further details.) …