What Will President Trump Administration Mean for Seniors?

As I’ve spent several recent weeks of my sabbatical in Arizona to be closer to my 90+ year old parents, I watched the run up to the election from this Southwestern vantage point, instead of my usual Pennsylvania location.  Not only was I surprised by the result of the Pennsylvania vote, it was a surprise to see Arizona voters — usually a Republican stronghold with a strong “senior” vote– struggle with the election choices available to them.  

On November 8, Arizona rejected legalization of recreational marijuana (predictable) and approved a significant increase of minimum wage (a closer call, as the business community in Arizona largely opposed that increase).  Further, Trump had angered some by throwing shade on 80-year-old Senator John McCain’s “hero” reputation. In contrast, Trump’s seeming alliance with controversial Sheriff Joe Arpaio, despite the later’s pending criminal contempt prosecution, gave other Arizonans pause. Ultimately, 84-year-old Arpaio was voted “out” in Arizona (but, it remains to be seen whether he will be “out” of government at the federal level too).   In other words, Arizonans were not voting in support of a “pure” Republican platform.  

My mom, a Democrat but a somewhat reluctant Hillary supporter, was glued to CNN for much of the summer and fall, and she accurately predicted the Trump victory despite the pollsters’ and commentators’ refusal to acknowledge the frustrations driving the Trump tidal.  She insisted on voting on election day, rather than taking advantage of Arizona’s early vote options. 

We know little about how Donald Trump will prioritize and govern once he takes the reins of his very first elected position.  That uncertainty makes many nervous even as it makes others hopeful.  

What will a Trump Administration mean for aging Americans?  Some topics to consider:

• Public Retirement Benefits:  Candidate Trump — rarely one to get into the details of policy issues — seemed o make a distinction between age-based benefits, including Social Security retirement and Medicare health insurance coverage, and disability-based benefits.  Congress may seize on the latter.  Trump argued “more jobs, less waste” was a cure for the solvency questions.   On the one hand, he says he would support privatizing “some portion” of Social Security savings or investments to allow individuals to self-invest, while on the other hand rejecting “government” in the role of the retirement”investor.” He seems willing to consider means testing for payment of retirement benefits. Here’s a link to several utterances of Donald Trump on the topic of Social Security.  
• Health Care for Seniors:  Unlike ObamaCare in general, it will probably be harder for Donald Trump and Congress to displace the fundamentals of Medicare for seniors.  But real cost questions attend health care for seniors.  At what point will Trump be hit with the reality that all of his campaign plans about immigration, walls, foreign trade and infrastructure pale in comparison to the true challenges facing an aging American on health care?  
• Medicaid for Long-Term Care:  Candidate Trump has probably not focused on Medicaid as a source of long-term care financing.  With Republicans controlling the House and Senate, however, will the old “anti-Medicaid planning” forces feel newly energized?
• Consumer Protections for Older Americans:  Candidate Trump will feel the pressure from Republican-controlled Congress to roll back administrative safeguards implemented by President Obama during the last two years. Perhaps here is where seniors may feel the quickest impact from the change in power, including potential rollbacks on consumer protection measures that attempted to bar pre-dispute binding arbitration “agreements” for nursing home residents, implemented fiduciary duty standards for investment advisors, and imposed closer scrutiny on consumer credit companies. Indeed, the most direct threat of the Trump Administration, combined with the Republican Congress, is likely to be to “Elizabeth Warren’s Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.”  

How this all plays out will be “interesting,” won’t it?  The points above are about today’s generation of seniors.  Perhaps the most important Trump impact will be for “future” seniors, especially if Trump’s predicted roll back on environmental protections and his advisors’ seeming rejection of climate science hold sway.