Voting by Generations

A recent report about Boomers and voting made be stop for a moment and go “hmmmm”.  Pew Research Center’s latest FactTank offered that this may be the last presidential election where the Greatest Generation, the Silents and the Boomers have a significant impact at the polls.

This may be the last presidential election dominated by Boomers and prior generations explains that although these demographic groups have dominated at the polls, that may no longer be true;  “their election reign may end this November, according to a new Pew Research Center analysis of census data.”

[T]he ranks of Millennial and Generation X eligible voters have been growing, thanks to the aging-in of Millennials and naturalizations among foreign-born adults. These generations matched Boomers and previous generations as a share of eligible voters in 2012 and are now estimated to outnumber them. As of July, an estimated 126 million Millennial and Gen X adults were eligible to vote (56% of eligible voters), compared with only 98 million Boomers and other adults from prior generations, or 44% of the voting-eligible population.

However, keep in mind that eligible and actual are not synonymous. In fact, the article reminds us what ultimately matters is who casts ballots. Looking at the data and focusing on actual votes, the report offers that the Boomers and prior generations voted at a rate of about 70% of eligible voters. The younger generations percentage turnout was lower, according to the article.

Not that the generations are in competition or anything. It’s just interesting to think about the changing demographics at the ballot box and wonder at the impact on laws and policies as a result.

Among those in the oldest living generation, the Greatest Generation, turnout crested in the 1984 election at 76% before declining. Similarly, turnout among eligible voters in the Silent Generation peaked at 76% in the 1992 election. The Millennial and Gen X generations are likely still on the upswing in terms of their turnout rates, so it is a reasonable guess that at least 54.5% of these adults will vote, and perhaps more.

We won’t know until after November if Boomers and their elders will pass the torch to Gen X and Millennials as a share of voters, but all the available data suggest that the 2016 election will mark the beginning of a new era for U.S. presidential elections.