Drops in Occupancy Mark Challenges to Financial Health for Senior Living Industries
Publically-traded Brookdale Senior Living, founded in 1978, has grown to become the largest owner and operator of “senior living” communities in the U.S., including for-profit continuing care retirement communities (CCRCs). Thus, it is good to keep an eye on the finances of Brookdale for those of us interested in the long-term financial health of CCRCs and other senior housing options.
Steve Monroe at Irving Levin Associates notes that Brookdale “was no different than the rest of the market, posting sharp drops in first quarter occupancy” for 2015:
“The legacy Emeritus [a component of Brookdale, following a 2014 merger] properties posted a 110 basis point decline from the fourth quarter of 2014, and a whopping 200 basis point decline from a year ago. The legacy Brookdale properties dropped 80 basis points sequentially and 110 basis points from a year ago. This was not good news, but not unexpected. Oddly enough, the legacy Brookdale properties had a 250 basis point increase in community operating margin to 35.2% despite the occupancy declines. The Emeritus properties had a 90 basis point sequential drop in margin, which makes more sense.”
How do you achieve a significant increase in “operating margin” despite “occupancy declines?” A good question to ponder. Steve Monroe continues: “The reasons for the legacy Brookdale improvement were a combination of cost controls and more pricing flexibility. Move-ins have been increasing, which is great, but ‘cost controls’ always make me nervous, especially with the current acuity creep. Stay tuned.”
The reference to “acuity creep” is to the increase in average age and frailty of new residents, compared with past years (especially before the financial crisis of 2008-10). This trend impacts CCRCs in several ways, both in terms of market appeal to healthier potential residents, and operating costs tied to an earlier need for higher levels of care. An additional question may be whether low interest rates have supported a bubble in certain segments of senior housing despite the softer occupancy rates, and whether an eventual return to higher capitalization rates will result in lower values and additional consequences.
Along that same line, the Philadelphia Inquirer published a recent article in their “retirement” news edition, noting “Continuing-Care Retirement Community Choice Requires Diligence,” by Harold Brubaker, with tips on what to ask if you are a consumer considering a CCRC option.