Will “Ageing” Be a Factor In Scotland’s September Vote on Independence?
Scotland is scheduled for a historic national referendum on September 18, with voters asked to vote “yes” or “no” on the question: “Should Scotland be an independent country?” I have to think that “age” will be — and perhaps should be — a factor on several fronts. For example, some commentators predict younger voters may see independence as favoring jobs, or speculate that younger voters could be influenced by “celebrity” supporters. On the other hand, Scotland’s population is “older” than the United Kingdom as a whole, and older citizens may realize that the existing UK pension structure may be unaffordable with a smaller pool of contributors. Examples from a recent report:
- Although the working age population in Scotland is predicted to increase by 7% between 2010 and 2035, those of “pensionable age” will increase by 26% over the same period.
- Scotland’s growing population of “pensionable” individuals is projected to increase by 2.9 percentage points between 2010 and 2035, compared with a 1.7 percentage rise for the U.K.
- While “life expectancy” is growing in Scotland for both men and women, periods of “not healthy” life expectancy remain significant for a number of regions, with individuals in Greater Glasgow and Clyde predicted to have, on average, as many as 10 years of less-than-healthy living circumstances.
While Scotland already has undergone a significant devolution of governance, both permitting and requiring it to shoulder greater responsibility for policy and financing, it would seem that independence holds very real consequences for “financial sustainability” on many levels, including health care and income security for older Scottish citizens.
Commentators and friends in Scotland and the U.K. tell me it is unlikely that the ultimate vote will be in favor of independence. Still, it will be interesting to see how older and younger Scottish citizens will vote in the referendum.
And Scotland isn’t alone in its quest for identity and change in governing policies. Consider the most recent efforts to carve out a 51st state, out of northern California.